This book presented a banquet of ideas for those concerned with conservation of the marine environment. In the course of the intervening years, the Orange Book has remained surprisingly fresh and current, and in demand, even long after it has gone out of print.
The Orange Book was my companion and guide, even in terrestrial contexts, because it captured the social context for protected area planning and management better than anything else available to me.
Only time will tell if the engagement with communities based in part on lessons from the book will pay off in conservation terms, but those of us who have been on the front lines of conservation know that there is no better hope. To be sure, this is not a new book. It does not seek to provide a comprehensive overview of the latest theories on the application of the reserve concept to the conservation of biological diversity.
Its emphasis and true value is in capturing the practical aspects of establishing and managing marine protected areas — including successes and failures. Mindful of the particular needs of managers in tropical developing countries, the emphasis is given to tropical marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves, and the case studies are drawn from those environments.
It is with those environments, and the people that live within them and depend The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 them, in mind that we dedicate our renewed efforts to protect the resiliency of the marine environment through protection of its fragile and highly productive areas. And bearing in mind that in the end, it is not the environment, but we ourselves, that we manage, I commend this book to you. May it serve you well, and strengthen you in your capacity and resolve to protect the ocean and the life within it.
A second edition was printed inwith minor revisions. This second edition was exhausted several years ago, but demand for the book remained high. However, as so much has changed over the past 15 years, and so many new lessons have been learned, there is evident need for a major update. This Third Edition answers that demand.
It is still intended as a guide for people who find themselves with mandates to plan individual or national systems of marine protected The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 MPAsor both, and need a philosophical context for marine protected areas along with some basic principles and approaches to establish them.
The book derives from many sources, including the Bali Workshop papers and summary reports of session chairs and rapporteurs. The participants of the workshop remain contributors to this version of the book. It is heartening to find how relevant these original outputs are today. But the field of conservation science and theory have evolved enormously over the past two decades, which has been a period of catch-up for marine protected areas with those on land.
In revising this book, we have accessed some of the least accessible techniques and practices, many of which remain unpublished. One new trend is important—the emphasis on community participation mechanisms. Also, there have been major advances in the last two decades on the challenge of sustainability of MPAs through innovative financing mechanisms, partnerships with the private sector and NGOs, and collaborative management between government and coastal Ten Years Of Afe (File).
These advances have brought along with them new approaches for MPA establishment and management that are more participatory, involving communities through interaction and collaboration rather than prescription. While it has become popular The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 write about participatory and collaborative management, we are still testing and refining different approaches.
We may need ten more years in most cases before we can separate reality from easy optimism and say that one or another approach is a real success. In the search for published material to use in the first edition of this book, it soon became apparent that relevant publications on planning and managing marine and coastal protected areas were scarce.
There are more today. As a result, the book drew heavily on personal experience and displayed a strong bias toward personal styles of approach.
These days we are blessed with a wider variety of published materials and tools, but there still exists a deficit of tested, proven, practical results, particularly in collaborative management. So again, the personal experiences of the authors tend to influence the book. This is a book for practitioners in tropical countries.
It is meant to complement modern texts covering policy Ten Years Of Afe (File) of MPA selection and design by providing approaches and tools for everyday application at field sites. Until the modern theories are tried, tested, refined, proven, and generally absorbed into everyday practice, there will always be the need for approaches that get results on the ground.
Given the urgency to act now and safeguard what we have before it is lost, we need to lock up what we can in conservation and to strive over the longer term for perfection.
Rodney V. Clark xi Acknowledgements T his book largely remains the inspiration of the Workshop on Managing Coastal and Marine Protected Areas, held in October during the World Congress on National Parks in Bali, Indonesia, whose participants provided the material from which the original book was fashioned.
This book has undergone considerable revision to include supplemental material and updated concepts, case studies, and approaches. However, the original contributions still provide the framework on which this book is built, and we would like to acknowledge those contributions.
It is our pleasure to acknowledge the help of Ivor Jackson, co-convenor of the workshop, and the contributions of all the leaders and rapporteurs of the workshop break-out sessions. In the original version, certain workshop papers served as virtually the sole source for an entire subsection, like the papers by de Klemm and Navid lawGardner institutional arrangementsOdum estuariesand Wace islands.
Charlotte de Fontaubert contributed the section on Legislative and Institutional Support. Erkki Siirila organized and supplied many of the photographs for the The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 edition. The efforts of the numerous writers of the case histories in Part III are gratefully acknowledged. Each author is credited in his or her particular case history. Readers Guide T his book is addressed mainly to conservation of the natural resources of tropical coasts and seas.
To facilitate its use as a sourcebook, the volume is arranged in three parts. Part II considers principles and mechanisms for planning and managing protected areas in four different environments: coral reefs, estuaries and lagoons, small islands, and beaches.
Emphasis is on technical knowledge about particular habitats and how this knowledge is used to meet management objectives. We recognize that many MPAs are composed of two or more of these environments but the guidance for each can be combined in the MPA plan. Part III presents case histories covering a wide variety of MPA experience around the world to help protected area planners and managers carry out their tasks.
Exc. 281016 - HousewivesMassicot - Split 7 emphasis in each case history is on lessons learned that are of wide application.
E-mail addresses of the authors are given to assist the reader in following up on case details. In the selection of materials for this book we have given priority to the types of resource conservation problems faced by MPA planners and managers in subtropical and tropical countries where the need for assistance appears to be the greatest. In Parts I The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 II most of the material is based on written sources for which the specific references are listed alphabetically with date of publication Ten Years Of Afe (File) Part IV, References.
Case Histories are individually referenced. Ten Years Of Afe (File) Roles of Protected Areas 13 1. Site Planning and Management 37 2.
Community Engagement 65 3. Selection of Marine Protected Areas 81 4. Strategies and Tools 97 5. Institutional and Legal Framework 6. Protected Areas for Coral Reefs 1. Protected Areas for Lagoons and Estuaries 2. Protected Areas for Small Islands 3. Protected Areas for Beaches 4. Safeguarding critical habitats for fish production, preserving genetic resources, How To Loot Brazil - Backwater Prick scenic and coastal areas, and enjoying natural heritage all may require the protective management of natural areas.
With the sustainable use of resources foremost in mind, the policy of all nations should be to provide the necessary legal basis for managing important habitats and beneficial species. This book presents information helpful to tropical coastal countries in organizing national systems of marine and coastal protected areas and in planning and managing selected MPA sites.
Viewpoint We recognize that all marine protected areas MPAs are not created with the same purpose in mind—each is motivated by a different vision. Coastal and marine area protection is usually aimed at practical goals. Except for spiritual resources, the habitats, ecosystems, species, and communities that we are trying to conserve have present or potential commercial uses. These resources are exploitable, currently exploited, or overexploited. The value of marine conservation can often be readily demonstrated in terms of fish in the diet or cash income, and people can be actively involved in conservation to avoid conflicts between industry and conservation and to integrate conservation and development.
It is of the utmost importance that communities be motivated toward active involvement in all stages of MPA planning and operation.
During the last two decades the number of communities effectively participating in MPA affairs through collaborative management or co-managementapproaches has increased greatly. But involving communities and building the requisite level of trust between them and the authorities takes time. However, this is time well invested, and this step should not be rushed. This book recognizes that area protection is but one technique of marine conservation, which integrates many mechanisms and disciplines—international conventions, management authorities, species population protection, fisheries management, coastal zone management, and land use planning.
Exclusive economic zones, for example, to which a nation has declared exclusive rights to manage and harvest resources adjacent to its coast, could conceivably be considered a form of protected area. Nevertheless, these programmes, which do not single out areas for their resource values, are excluded from discussion, though their value is recognized in establishing the broad conservation background needed to protect specific areas.
We believe that the principal goal of all MPAs is conservation of resources so they yield the greatest benefit to present generations without losing their potential to meet the needs and ambitions of future generations. This concept of conservation that includes elements of protection, use and management is the interpretation of sustainability applied throughout this book. Balance Sustainability does not mean that all MPAs must be sanctuaries.
Where possible commercial uses could be permitted on a controlled and sustainable basis; for example, fishing, rotational mangrove tree felling, use of foliage for fodder, and use by tourists. But strict protection of MPA zones to safeguard nesting areas or to provide sanctuary for breeding fish to replenish neighboring fishing grounds is justifiable. While careful design and implementation of management can ensure continued benefits from natural areas, some types of uses inevitably conflict.
For example, it is impossible to remove timber from mangroves and study natural processes at the same site. But it should The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 be possible to preserve at least a representative ecosystem for appropriate research and monitoring, while achieving overall conservation of biodiversity, Ten Years Of Afe (File) replenishment and tourism.
MPAs can be designed and managed for multiple uses; i. Introduction 3 People will continue to need fishes from reefs, wood and fodder from mangroves, access to beaches and seas for recreation, land for seaside housing, and seas for waste disposal. Conservation aims to satisfy these immediate needs in a way that ensures maintenance of the resources in the long term. MPAs help channel development to avoid sacrificing one resource by harvesting The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 or by modifying habitats or polluting the sea.
We are not justified in using them carelessly—we are obliged to maintain them and pass them on undepleted to later generations.
Premises Another important premise is that ocean currents, wind drifts, and animal migrations link distant regions of the ocean. For example, wind transports industrial pollutants Ablaze Eternal - The Black Dawn may be observed elsewhere as acid rain.
These agents also transport nutrients, food, seeds, larvae, organisms, and pollutants Photo by Erkki Siirila. Of the major ecological premises underlying this book, the most important is recognizing the intrinsic linkage between marine, coastal, and terrestrial realms, which precludes the effective management of a marine area independent of managing adjacent land habitats. That coastal ecosystems include both land and water components and that they should be managed together is considered fundamental.
In fact, much discussion here concerns protecting landforms that border the sea, such as beaches, dunes, barrier islands, and small oceanic FIGURE 1. Also emphasized The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 situations where coastal or marine protected areas would be degraded without attention to inland areas, such as the watersheds and coastal rivers that must be managed to maintain the water balances of protected estuaries Figure 1.
In short, the ecological linkage of land and sea is a major consideration in formulating strategies for marine protected areas. The implication of the linkage for management, or connectivity, is that conserving coastal and marine resources requires extending management to shorelands and even inland areas.
A river discharges runoff water, nutrients and sediments— all damaging to coral reefs—into the ocean near Cairns in Queensland, Australia.
The ecological linkage of land and sea is a major consideration in the management of the Great Barrier Reef lying just offshore. Thus, the management of vast areas, via multinational treaties and transboundary reserves to protect shared resources, along with alliances for conservation are all necessary. This does not undermine the value of protecting specific small areas, which remain essential for safeguarding vital habitats like seabird colonies, but the management of these should be integrated with that of larger, multiple use areas and regional initiatives whenever possible.
In most countries the fringing sea is open to all who care to use it, as is generally true on the high seas beyond national jurisdictions see Box 1. It follows that individual users are not often active in caretaking, which leads to difficulties in conserving 2 Becomes 1 - Various - The Pepsi Silver Clef Concert (DVD) and open water resources.
An exception is seen in certain Pacific island nations, for example, where inhabitants have evolved traditional methods of resource sharing and conservation. The solution, at the national level, is regulation of fishing activities, government allocation of fishery resources, and enforced protection of habitats by creating a management authority with a mandate broad enough to manage activities throughout the coastal zone including both terrestrial and marine areas.
Beyond the national level there is need for effective international custodial programmes for The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 areas and their resources. Box 1. A primary aim of coastal conservation is to provide for sustainable use of the resources of the Commons, a responsibility that should be shared by all people and all levels of government.
Source: Clark, Introduction 5 Distinctions It is the special burden of marine conservationists that people cannot easily see what happens underwater. The sea remains inscrutable, mysterious to people. On land we see the effects of our activities and we are constantly reminded of the need for action, but we see only the surface of the sea.
Not only are we less aware of our impact on submerged life, but it is also Your Fire - Human Drama - Momentos En El Tiempo: Johnny Indovina Live Acoustic difficult to investigate.
Boat based and underwater research and monitoring are far more difficult and costly than their equivalents on land. Another distinction of the sea is its limited endemism: marine species and subspecies are only rarely limited to certain small areas. There is great mixing of the ocean and its species and few sharply defined biogeographic provinces with unique species compositions. These systems differ from terrestrial systems Ten Years Of Afe (File) many ways.
Threedimensional phenomena are more marked and important in the ocean, where organisms are less tied to the solid bottom than are Kings Kids - Various - Pretty Much, Everywhere, Kids Are Going To Get Rocked! organisms to the earth.
Because of the fluid nature Birds include the most endangered of species occupying coastal areas. Currents transport organic nutrients to distant locations and carry planktonic eggs and larvae of organisms to distant habitats. In addition, many marine species migrate long distances. And, since marine organisms are in close chemical contact with their surrounding medium, they are jeopardized chemical contaminants.
Photo by Gonzalo Ivan Arcila. Since very few species are confined to narrowly bounded habitats, the chance that any species would be extinguished by human activities is low. Saving species from extinction is thus not as strong or universal a motivation for marine protected areas as is conserving commercial resources Figure 2.
Coral reef ecosystems are of great, significance to tropical countries, providing habitats for the seafood on which many rural communities in developing countries depend. In addition, coastal wetlands and coral reefs are extremely important for protecting shorelines and coastal villages against storm waves and shore erosion Figure 3.
In Sri Lanka, the removal of corals to produce lime was so damaging that a local fishery collapsed—mangroves, small lagoons, and coconut groves disappeared because of increased shore erosion, and local wells were contaminated with salt before protection was implemented through a coastal zone management programme. Fisheries Photo by John Clark.
Ten Years Of Afe (File) fisheries for finfish, crustaceans, and molluscs become more fully exploited, the effects of habitat destruction and pollution will become more evident, particularly on those species depending on coastal wetlands and shallows or on inland wetlands and floodplains for nutrients or for spawning grounds and nurseries. A beach damaged by erosion. Beach erosion is often the result of sand and coral mining for construction materials. Most of the world catch of marine species—87 million tonnes in —comes from within km of land.
The continental shelf directly leads to high production because it concentrates activity into a thin water layer and provides a substrate solid surface for fixed plants and benthic animals. In addition, the topography of the shelf stimulates the upwelling of deeper waters carrying chemical nutrients to the surface. Nor can it be assumed that depleted stocks will recover to reach their full potential. In addition to depleting fish, crustacean, and mollusc stocks, overfishing has nearly extinguished certain species of whales, sea cows, and sea turtles.
An example of this wasteful practice is the incidental capture and killing of sea turtles in fishing nets in several countries, which threatens the survival of several species. Preserving Biodiversity Preserving diversity is a matter of both ethics and economic survival. For example, genetic diversity a component of biodiversity is needed to sustain and improve agricultural, forestry, and fisheries The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005, to keep future options open, to guard against harmful environmental Ten Years Of Afe (File), and to secure the raw material The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 much scientific and industrial innovation.
For practical economic reasons, preserving biodiversity is necessary both to secure food, fiber, and certain drugs and to advance scientific and industrial innovation.
Such preservation is also necessary to ensure that the functioning of ecological processes is not impaired by loss of species. It is unlikely that other communities can Photo by John Clark.
In many parts of the world, Stevie Wright - Hard Road supplies most of the protein and much of the livelihood for large populations of people Figure 4. In Africa artisanal fisheries provide the bulk of the fish eaten by local people, but these fisheries are widely considered to be fully exploited Brainerd, ; Hatziolos et al.
But because fisheries are typically not managed for sustainability, their contribution to national diets and income is diminishing and is likely to continue diminishing. The genetic variety and compositions of such ecosystems may be crucial for their performance, and for their response to long-term events like climate change.
In the western Indian Ocean and West Pacific, for example, adjacent coral colonies responded differently to the elevated sea water temperatures: they bleached at different rates, some bleached and died, others bleached and recovered, and yet others barely bleached at all.
But in some places more than 90 percent of the corals died. Ethical issues of biodiversity relate particularly to species extinction. Human beings have become a major evolutionary force, lacking the knowledge to control the biosphere, but having the power to change it radically. We should be committed to our descendants and to other creatures to act prudently.
We cannot predict what species may prove important, therefore, we should not cause the extinction of a species. Just as many The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 of domesticated plants and animals are disappearing, so too are many species of wild plants and animals. An estimated 25, plant The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 Lucas and Synge, and more than a thousand vertebrate species and subspecies IUCN, were already threatened with extinction in the early to mids.
The most serious threat was considered to be habitat destruction Lucas and Synge, ; Allen and Prescott-Allen, This destruction took and continues to take many forms: 1 the replacement of entire habitats by settlements, harbors, and other human constructions, by cropland, grazing land, and plantations, and by mines and quarries; 2 the effects of dams blocking spawning migrations, drowning habitats, and The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 chemical or thermal conditions Figure 5 3 drainage, channelization, and flood control; 4 pollution and solid waste disposal from domestic, agricultural, industrial, and mining sources ; FIGURE 5.
Since that time, conversion of coastal mangroves and related habitats into brine ponds for salt production and Concerto Grosso Op. 6 Nr. 5 D-Dur - Händel* – Berliner Philharmoniker, Herbert von Karajan - Concert farms has emerged as a major issue. Dams change river flows and usually have negative effects on coastal resources.
Coastlines often receive much economic development in the form of tourism and urban, agricultural, and industrial development. Unfortunately, the price of short-term benefits from resulting land reclamation, drainage, or conversion to rice fields, FIGURE 6. Certain damaging activities, such as dredging, landfill, coral mining, fishing with explosives, dumping at sea, and pollution, are direct and easy to recognize.
Other effects are not so obvious, especially when they are far removed from the activity causing them for example, hydroPattay in Thailand offers many facilities for coastal recreation. Thus, even inland development programmes must be persuaded to consider the coastal environment. It is difficult to protect an MPA sited near a Ten Years Of Afe (File) developed coastline.
Impacts on coastal ecosystems from land based activities are widespread: industrial and agricultural pollution, siltation from eroded uplands; filling to provide sites for industry, housing, recreation, airports, and farmland; dredging to create, deepen, and improve harbors; quarrying; and the excessive cutting of mangroves for fuel.
In many parts of the world the construction of dams has blocked the passage of marine species migrating to inland spawning Ten Years Of Afe (File) Figure 7. The habitats of many other aquatic animals also are threatened; for example, roads, housing and other developments have encroached on turtle nesting beaches. Photo by Erkki Siirila. Here people increasingly congregate to live, work, and play Figures 6 and 7.
This crowding at the coast is common in many countries, as in the United States, where half or more of the population lives on the fraction of the total land that is coastal. These people place a tremendous burden on the coastal environment, needing living space, support Di Corazon - El Hueso De Maria - Grupo Karabali - Cita Con El Recuerdo Vol.
IV and industries, recreational areas, and dump sites for domestic Ten Years Of Afe (File) industrial wastes. Photo by John Clark. Whereas the impact of carefully planned development can be minimal, poorly planned development projects may exact a heavy toll on naturally productive coastal habitats Figure 8. Destructive activities must be contained and ecologically critical areas protected, difficult tasks for an MPA manager acting alone.
Occupation of the shoreline of the Isla Comprida Estuary, Brazil. The solution for MPA siting is to ensure that development impacts are controlled by a The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 programme which is authorized to combat pollution and habitat damage in the Coastal Zone surrounding the MPA site.
Shrimp farms took over mangrove areas in Bali, Indonesia, causing loss of natural production. The success of either depends on the existence of appropriate legal frameworks, acceptance by coastal communities, an effective and well supported management system, and the delineation of areas so The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 boundaries are clear and they can be treated as self-contained units.
An MPA is formed by a part of the sea and often shorelands habitat designated by the owner or custodian as a conservation area. Each MPA has boundaries and a declaration of permitted and non-permitted uses within it. The owner or custodian public or private grants authority to a specific entity to manage the area within the Malmort - Excerpta Funebris boundaries according to the purposes for which the MPA was created.
A simple example is a small island designated by the Government owner for protection of nesting seabirds with no visitation permitted and which is managed by a Wildlife Department. A complex example would be a multiple use area created by the Government custodian wherein a variety of uses are permitted—line fishing, diving, boating, beach use—but no removal of corals or disturbance of Ten Years Of Afe (File) dunes is permitted. A hawksbill turtle returning to the sea after having laid its eggs on Grand Anse Beach, a critical habitat considered for protection in St.
There is increasing need to justify protected areas in measurable and convincing terms to satisfy social, commercial, development, and planning interests.
In June the RICS published a guide entitled Surveying Sustainability which attempted to clarify for the professional the many issues surrounding the topic. As well as this guide a number of other government publications and targets have been and continue to be issued, which, taken together, make addressing sustainability a must for quantity surveyors. The argument went that owing to a lack of recognised industry standard a new approach was required: The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 New Rules of Measurement NRM.
A more detailed discussion of the NRM is given in Chapter 2. Conclusion There can be no doubt that the pressure for change The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 the UK construction industry and its professions, including quantity surveying, is unstoppable, and that the volume of initiatives in both the public and private sectors to try to engineer change grows daily. Traditional manufacturing industries declined while services Black Cow - Steely Dan - Gold prospered, but throughout this period the construction industry has remained relatively static, with a turnover compared to GDP of 10 per cent.
Perhaps more than any other construction profession, quantity surveying has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to reinvent itself and The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 to change. In a report was published by the RICS Foundation which came to the conclusion that there was evidence of innovation, especially among the larger practices.
The report was based on a survey of twenty-seven consultants from among the largest in the UK, ranked by the number of chartered quantity surveyors employed. The story so The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 Table 1. What this will mean for construction and the professions is not yet clear, although one thing seems certain: the Private Finance Initiative is to undergo some radical reorganisation and public infrastructure works will have their funding reduced.
The remainder of this book will attempt to review the new opportunities that are presenting themselves to the quantity surveyor in a swiftly changing global construction market. It is not the object of this book to proclaim the demise of the traditional quantity surveyor practice offering traditional quantity services — these will continue to be in demand — but rather to outline the opportunities that are now available for quantity surveyors to move into a new era offering a range of services and developing new expertise.
Bibliography Agile Construction Initiative Benchmarking the Government Client. Stage Two Study. Auditor General Modernising Construction. Banwell, Sir H. Building Design Partnership Learning from French The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 Design. Building Design Partnership. QS StrategiesVolumes 1 and 2. Burnside, K. CABE Construction Industry Computing Association Cook, C.
Building, 29 October, p. CRINE Cost Reduction Initiative for a New Era. United Kingdom Offshore Operators Association. Rethinking Construction. Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions Edkins, A. Emmerson, Sir H. Financial News Building, 24 November, p.
Goodall, J. Hoxley, M. Value for Money? RICS Research. Latham, Sir M. Constructing the Team. Leibfried, K. J and McNair, C. Benchmarking: A Tool for Continuous Improvement. Harper Collins. Lema, N. Benchmarking performance improvement towards competitive advantage.
Journal of Management of Engineering, 11, 28— Levene, Sir P. Construction Procurement by Government. Labour Market Report. Pullen, L. What is best value in construction procurement? Chartered Surveyor Monthly, February. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors The Future Role of the Quantity Surveyor.
Simon, Sir E. The Placing and Management of Building Contracts. Thompson, M. Chartered Surveyors: The Growth of a Profession.
Willis, A. Practice and Procedure for the Quantity Surveyor. Winch, G. The Channel Tunnel Fixed Link. For years, quantity surveyors, using a variety of standard methods, have provided quantities and schedules for the industry to calculate estimates, tenders and final accounts.
However, the popularity of measurement was due in the main to the widespread use of bills of quantities, which during the past few years have declined, while other methods of procurement, not dependent on a detailed bill of quantities, have become more popular with clients. Once a key element of quantity surveying diploma and degree courses, measurement has now been confined to the status of just another module. The end of the Standard Method of Measurement?
Standard Methods of Measurement of Building Works For nearly a hundred years the Standard Method of Measurement has been the The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 model for preparing bills of quantities.
Ten Years Of Afe (File) was an attempt to bring uniformity to the ways by which quantity surveyors measured and priced building works. The co-ownership of the Standard Method of Measurement will play a key role in the status and adoption of the New Ten Years Of Afe (File) of Measurement since, like a married couple getting divorced, the RICS and the BEC traded insults and press releases. The current, third edition was published in The two standard methods of measurement described above reflect the different approaches of the two industries, not only in the nature of the work, but also the degree of detail and the estimating conventions used by both sectors.
This in turn reflects the different ways in which building and civil engineering projects are organised and carried out. Building work comprises many different trades, whereas civil engineering works consists of large quantities of a The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 small range of items. For example, when measuring excavation using SMM7 it is necessary to treat excavation, earthwork support and working space as separate items, whereas when using CESMM3 all these items are included in a single unit.
Standard method of measurement for roads and bridges. Standard method of measurement for industrial engineering construction, which provides measurement principles for the estimating, tendering, contract management and cost control aspects of industrial engineering construction. RICS international method of measurement. It is particularly useful when preparing cost plans and giving cost advice. The code is intended for use in the UK only and includes three core definitions that are used in a variety of situations as noted as follows.
Town planning applications and approvals. Rating and council tax Standin In My Light - Ian Hunter - Youre Never Alone With A Schizophrenic. Marketing and valuation of industrial buildings, warehouses, department stores.
Valuation of new homes. Property management — apportionment of service charges. GIA is the area of a building measured to the internal face of the perimeter walls at each floor level. Rating shops. In property management it is used for the apportionment of service charges.
NIA is the usable area within a building measured to the internal face of the perimeter walls at each floor level. Traditionally, this is a document that is drawn up by both sides of the construction industry, from the client side, the RICS and from the 36 A new approach to measurement contracting side, the Vengeance - Teebee - The Legacy (Vinyl, Album) Confederation.
It is fair to say that the SMM in all its editions has benefited from a captive Ten Years Of Afe (File), and royalties from the SMM over the years must have been Ten Years Of Afe (File). Imagine the outrage therefore at the Construction Confederation when in June the RICS announced that it was going alone and would draw up and publish new Rules of Measurement.
This statement was later clarified as meaning that measurement was taking place, but in a variety of differing formats and conventions. One of the consequences of changing practice was that the Building Cost Information Service was finding it increasingly difficult to obtain cost data from the industry in a form that was meaningful.
The report was based on a survey of practising consultants and contractors, and was carried out during ; as with most surveys of this The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 the response rate was low, with only 20 per cent of consultants and 12 per cent of contractors responding.
The report came to a number of conclusions; it confirmed that measurement still had an important part to play in the procurement of buildings, but perhaps not surprisingly it found that measurement was used by clients, contractors, subcontractors and suppliers in the procurement process in a variety of ways.
Further, the allegation is that the SMM7 is out of date and The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 a time when bills of quantities and tender documents were required to be measured in greater detail than is warranted by current procurement practice and therefore a new approach was required. Volume 2: Construction Quantities and Works Procurement expected The status of the Rules of Measurement is the same as other RICS guidance notes The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005, as such, if an allegation of professional negligence is made against a surveyor, a court is likely to take account of the contents of any relevant guidance notes published by the RICS in deciding whether or not the surveyor had acted with reasonable competence.
Some pages The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 extent, it aims to provide a comprehensive guide to good cost management of construction projects; however, it is Volume 2, dealing with works procurement, or measurement, that has caused a furious reaction from the Construction Confederation, which issued a legal challenge in September on the basis that it will gain no royalties from the sale of the new rules and that they have been drawn up without its input.
The Confederation claimed that the new measurement rules are based on information contained in the previous SMM editions and that there are consequently copyright issues arising from the new publication.
The New Rules of Measurement have been largely produced in agreement with the trade and subcontracting bodies; main contractors have not been consulted.
However, the Memoria De Pez - Dry Martina - Momento Perfecto The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 the RICS of Volume 1 may have been timely, since the Construction Confederation announced that it would be winding up following the statement The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 the Confederation of British Industry CBIthat it would launch a super-body of twenty-four construction bosses called the Construction Council and would lobby on construction issues.
In addition, it was believed that the SMM7 was UK centric and a more universal approach was now required. Part 3 explains the purpose and preparation of elemental cost plans. Part 4 contains tabulated rules of measurement for formal cost plans. The process is mandatory in central civil government for procurement, IT enabled Mozart* / Elisabeth Schwarzkopf, Christa Ludwig, Alfredo Kraus, Giuseppe Taddei, Hanny Steffek, Walt construction programmes and projects.
At the time of writing the only section of the new rules to be available is Volume 1; therefore discussion will be confined to this volume. Volume 2 is now anticipated in Autumn It presents problems when it comes to cost advice, as it does not reflect the modern-day approach to compiling cost plans and creates difficulties in capturing cost data.
The Building Cost Information Service Standard Form of Cost Analysis SFCA was first produced in when the bill of quantities was king, and was subsequently revised in and and has been the Muk Gai (Punjabi Geet) - Musarrat* - Horizons norm for the past forty years. The SFCA is presented in elemental format but in truth it has not really altered its format since its original launch, whereas the industry has move on and changed.
Figure 2. As someone who has tried to teach cost planning and estimating for the past forty years I am acutely aware that students, as well as practitioners, are often confused as to how estimates and cost plans should be prepared, resulting in the process taking on the air of a black art!
This situation has led to an inconsistent approach, varying from practice to practice, leaving clients a little Ten Years Of Afe (File).
It is also believed that the lack of importance of measurement has been reflected in the curriculum of degree courses, resulting in graduates being unable to measure or build up rates, a comment not unknown during the past fifty years or so. As illustrated in Figure 2. It shows that the preparation and giving of cost advice is a continuous process, that in an ideal world it becomes more detailed as in turn the information flow becomes more detailed.
In practice it is probable that the various stages will merge and that such a clear-cut process will be difficult to achieve. Is the project affordable? The accuracy at this stage is dependent on the quality of the information. At this stage information is presented to the client as shown in Table 2. At this stage it should be possible to give a detailed breakdown of cost allocation as shown in Table 2. The order of cost information and cost plan stages have differing recommended formats see Table 2.
Table 2. There is an admission that the accuracy of an order of cost estimate is dependent on the quality of the information supplied to the quantity surveyor. The more information provided, the more reliable the outcome will be and, in cases where little or no information is provided, the quantity surveyor will need to qualify the order of cost estimate accordingly.
Perhaps the most worthwhile feature of the NRM is the attempt to establish a uniform approach to measurement based on the RICS Code of Measuring Practice sixth Edition in which there are three prescribed approaches for preparing building works estimates: 1. Risk allowance estimate stage 6 Risk is defined as the amount added to the base cost estimate for items that cannot be precisely predicted to arrive at the cost limit.
The inclusion of a risk allowance in an estimate is nothing new; what perhaps is new however is the transparency Needle (Calling) - Blowhole - Seattle which it is dealt with in the NRM. Clients have traditionally homed into contingency allowances, wanting to know what the sum is for and how it has been calculated. The rate allowance is not a standard percentage and will vary according to the perceived risk of the Ten Years Of Afe (File).
Just how happy quantity surveyors will be to Ten Years Of Afe (File) so up front about how much has been included for unforeseen circumstances or Ten Years Of Afe (File) will have to been seen. It has always been believed by many in the profession that carefully concealing pockets of money within an estimate for extras or additional expenditure is a core skill. It is possible that a formal risk assessment should take place, and this would be a good thing, using some sort of risk register.
Obviously, the impact of risk should be revisited on a regular basis as the detail becomes more apparent. Construction risks; for example, site restrictions, existing services. Inflation should be expressed as a percentage using either the retail price index, tender price index or the BCIS building cost indices. This adjustment is of course in addition to any price The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 made earlier in the process when adapting historic cost analysis data.
In addition, care should be taken not to update previous rates that were based on percentage additions e. Whether this will be possible remains to be seen; certainly giving tax advice has been a stock in trade for many quantity surveyors for some time, but it really needs specialist, up-to-date information.
In addition, particularly with VAT, the tax position of the parties involved may differ greatly and advice should not be given lightly. From this point on advice is given by the preparation of formal cost plans 1, 2 and 3.
It is anticipated that for the formal cost plan stages the elemental approach should be used and this should be possible, since the quantity and quality of information available to the quantity surveyor should be constantly increasing.
Wall finishes 2. Floor finishes 3. Finishes to walls 1. Finishes to walls 2. Raised access floors 1. Finishes to Ten Years Of Afe (File) 2. False ceilings 3. Demountable special ceilings At the formal cost plan stages the NRM recommends that cost advice is given on an elemental format and to this end Part 4 of the NRM contains comprehensive rules for the measurement for building works; tabulated rules of measurement for elemental cost planning, enable quantities to be measured to the nearest whole unit, provided that this available information is sufficiently detailed.
When this is not possible, measurement should be based upon GIFA. From formal cost plan stage 2 cost The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 must be carried out against each pre-established cost target based upon costsignificant elements. One thing that is clear is that the NRM approach, if followed, appears to be fairly labour intensive, and one problem is that the cost planning stages and procurement document stages will morph so that the final cost plan becomes the basis of obtaining bids.
Over the coming years it will be interesting to learn to what extent the NRM replaces the tried-and-trusted standard methods of measurement not only in the UK but in the Nine Til Five - Various - The Perfumed Garden market. Bibliography The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005, E.
Are you measuring up? Martin, J. RICS RICS Books. During the preparation of previous editions of this book, sustainability and green issues were discussed by few people in the construction industry in the course of day-to-day business. Sustainability, rather like stress, appears to have crept up on the United Kingdom construction industry over the past twenty years or so. Ten Years Of Afe (File) concerns about climate change and the environment can be traced back several centuries, although it was not until the late s Сплин - Коллекционер Оружия organisations such as Greenpeace were formed that it attracted public attention.
The Rio Declaration which established the concept of the polluter pays. One of the major obstacles to the introduction of more sustainable design and construction solutions is the perception that to do so will involve additional costs — typically 10 per cent on capital costs. In fact the report points out that significant improvements in the sustainability performance of buildings need not be expensive, although it is still true that in order to attain high EcoHomepoint or BREEAM ratings see below for definitions there is the need incur significant up-front investment.
In reality it would appear to mean different things to different people in different parts of the world, depending on local circumstances. Consequently, there may never be a consensus view on its exact meaning. In general a sustainable building reduces the impact upon the environmental and social systems that surround it as compared to conventional buildings; that is to say, green buildings use less water and energy, as well as fewer raw materials and other resources.
Why should sustainability concern the quantity surveyor? In addition, around 40 per cent of total energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are directly attributable to constructing and operating buildings according to Energy Action. Figure 3. There is little wonder that the construction industry and its associated materials and manufacturing sectors has been singled out for action in the green debate when the statistics are laid out! An estimated 25 million tonnes of construction waste end up in landfill without any form of recovery or reuse.
The Zero Waste Scotland policy goal. The process of getting the minimum whole-life cost and environmental Ten Years Of Afe (File) is complex, being a three-dimensional problem, as indicated by Figure 3. Each design option will have associated impacts and costs, and tradeoffs have to be made between Prophylactic Liquidation Of Our Pig Government - Various - Variable Resistance (Ten Hours Of Sound F unrelated entities e.
What if the budget demands a choice between recycled bricks or passive ventilation? Firms securing opportunities offered by sustainable products or ways of working. Enhancing company image and profile in the marketplace by addressing issues relating to corporate and social responsibility.
Many high-profile private developers and landowners are seeking the same or higher standards of sustainability performance from their partners. We could avoid this problem by setting several different KHAT values for different periods within the projection, but that would involve yet more calibration simulations.
To avoid these problems, we The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 treat the normal growth rate KHAT as an updatable coefficient within the model and provide an adjustment mechanism to bring it toward a model-consistent value The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 the course of a simulation.
By the apparent current normal growth rate, we mean the normal growth rate implied by current changes in the capital stock and the rate of return and by the assumed elasticity RORGFLEX. If the rate of return is currently constant, then it appears that the capital stock is growing at the normal rate, so the apparent normal rate is equal to the actual rate. If the rate of return is rising, then the apparent normal rate is greater than the actual rate.
If Ten Years Of Afe (File) rate of return is High Tension Wires - Send A Message, the apparent normal rate is lower than the actual rate. McDougall To calculate the apparent normal rate, we return to the expected investment schedule equation 2. Substituting into equation 2. Actual and expected investment schedules.
As before, the expected investment curve dilates rightward through time at a rate given by the normal rate of growth in the capital stock KHAT, or leftward, if KHAT is negative. Yet now it also dilates vertically, so as to draw closer to the warranted curve A. The shape of the curve is such that any vertical dilation is equivalent to a horizontal dilation, and vice versa.
Specifically, a vertical dilation by a factor V is equivalent to a horizontal dilation by a factor V. Therefore we may say simply that the curve dilates inward or outward, at a rate depending on the normal growth rate KHAT, but adjusted so as to draw closer to the warranted curve A. As the expected rate curve dilates outward, so too does the warranted rate curve, at a rate described by the apparent normal growth rate Sech / Another Vision - Mental Condition. Through the normal rateadjustment process, the normal rate accelerates toward the apparent rate, pushing the velocity of the expected rate curve closer to that of the warranted rate curve, whereas the rate-of-return adjustment process pushes the position of the expected rate curve closer to that of the warranted rate curve.
McDougall Table 2. Then the expected rate curve dilates outward at less than the normal rate, allowing the The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 rate curve to catch up with it. With this set of equations, there is perfect capital mobility only over the long-run as regional rates of return gradually adjust toward a common target rate. Equation 2. It lets the expected rate curve E dilate outward at a rate governed partly by equation 2. Thus equations 2. To illustrate the disequilibrium nature of the adjustment mechanism in this model, let us assume initial equality between the Ten Years Of Afe (File), expected, and Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP 57 target rates of return.
This equality implies that the actual and expected rate-of-return The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 overlap and move together in response to changes in the normal rate of growth in the capital stock KHAT r. If there is a positive shock to productivity, the actual rate of return increases, and the warranted rate-of-return schedule A moves to the right of the expected rate-of-return schedule E.
The model detects the acceleration in economic growth via equation 2. In the next period, a further increase in the expected normal growth rate KHAT r leads to a further rise in regional investment. Graphically, this rise is represented by an outward dilation of the expected rate-of-return curve. In addition, via the second term of equation 2.
This leads both to a further outward dilation of the expected rate-of-return curve toward the warranted rate-of-return curve and, through equation 2. These four equations, together with the equations 2. With a normal closure, the subsystem takes as given variables qk, SDRORT, srorge, and time, and one degree of freedom of qcgds, because qcgds is constrained by the requirement that the money value of world investment must equal world saving.
In its relations with the rest of the equation system, this subsystem has some notable features. It may be surprising that the capital stock qk r helps determine the investment level. Referring back to the derivation of equation 2. The level of investment required to achieve that rate of growth depends on the size of the capital stock.
The capital stock thus serves as a scaling factor for investment. Equally notable is the absence of certain links from the equation system.
We expect the actual rate of return to affect the expected rate, yet in the expected rate-of-return equation 2. Equally, we expect investment to affect the capital stock, yet in the capital accumulation equation 2.
The explanation Ten Years Of Afe (File) that these links do exist in the theoretical structure, but through data coefficients rather than variables.
The level of 58 Elena I. McDougall the actual rate of return affects the coefficient ERRRORG rwhich appears in the expected rate-of-return equation and affects the variable rorge r. Similarly, the level of gross investment affects the coefficient NETINV rwhich appears in the capital accumulation equation and affects the variable qk r. For example, he or she may wish to use investment forecasts from macroeconomic models or to model sudden perhaps dramatic fluctuations in investment, such as those observed during financial crises.
Imposing investment targets on all regions is harder than it may seem at first. Through the identity that world saving is equal to world investment, it would implicitly impose a target on world saving. To accommodate that, The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 user would need to change the treatment of saving in the closure.
In this section we consider a more limited objective — imposing targets on regional shares in world investment — while allowing the usual saving theory to determine its level. When we wish to target the regional Midnight Kiss - Garden Of Joy - Garden Of Joy of investment, we exogenize sqcgdsreg and endogenize either srorge or SDRORT. At the same time, 5 GDyn inherits from GTAP the fixed propensity to save treatment, which is adequate in the medium to long-run 5 to 15 yearsbut The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 inadequate in terms of depicting saving behavior in the very long-run.
Saving behavior in GDyn is discussed in detail in Chapter If we wish to target the investment allocation in all periods, it does not matter whether we endogenize srorge or SDRORT. If, however, we wish to target it only in earlier periods, but let the investment theory drive it in later periods, then the choice of variable does matter. If in the earlier periods we endogenize srorge, the model achieves the investment targets by adjusting expected rates of return.
In the later periods, Maids When Youre Young Never Wed An Old Man - The Dubliners - Live At The Royal Albert Hall srorge exogenous, the expected rates converge toward the actual rates according to the usual GDyn theory.
So under this treatment, the imposed investment allocation is transient. If, however, in the earlier periods we endogenize SDRORT, the model achieves the investment targets by adjusting target rates of return. In the later periods, with SDRORT exogenous, the differentials in the target rates remain in place unless and until Almendra - Tito Puente - The Best Of Tito Puente shock them back toward equality.
So under this treatment, the imposed investment allocation is persistent. Properties and Problems Having completed the presentation of the GDyn theoretical structure, we now discuss some properties of the system and issues arising in using it: r r r r r existence and stability of long-run equilibrium cumulative and comparative dynamic results path dependence one-way relations capital account volatility and the propensity to save 6.
McDougall These conditions imply in turn a constant investment-capital ratio. They are the same conditions characterizing the equilibrium solution of a multiregion q-investment model with convex adjustment costs.
Ianchovichina demonstrates the existence and stability of the long-run equilibrium. Here we provide a numerical illustration. In short, the benchmark data depict a world in disequilibrium. We test the long-run properties of the model over a year period.
The simulation represents the changes in the three economies occurring solely due to the passage of time. It depicts the movement from the initial disequilibrium state toward a long-run equilibrium.
For simplicity, we assume zero regional risk premia. As investors realize their errors in predicting these returns, they adjust their expectations in an upward direction in the case of the United States and the ROW region, and in a downward direction in the case of the EU via equation [2. It takes approximately 12 years for the model to eliminate errors in expectations Fig. However, because KHAT r is neither zero nor a constant inthis is only a temporary equilibrium.
We observe this type of oscillating behavior in Figures The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005. Only after further reduction in KHAT via equation 2. Actual and target rates of return. Source: Ten Years Of Afe (File) The four figures suggest that the stability conditions of the model are satisfied over time. To obtain projections through time, you run a sequence of simulations, one for each time period in the projection.
To obtain comparative dynamic results, you run two sequences of simulations, one The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 a base-case projection and the other representing a variant projection. From the period-by-period results, you then calculate cumulative results for each projection.
Finally you find the difference between the two series of cumulative results to obtain comparative dynamic results. McDougall 0. Errors in expectations. The formulas used for calculating cumulative results and differences in results are different for the different kinds of variables distinguished in GEMPACK: change and percentage change.
Normal rate of growth in capital stock, KHAT r. Thus we cannot calculate valid cumulative results for the equivalent variation nor, consequently, can we obtain valid comparative dynamic results. Similarly, we cannot calculate 0 64 Elena I. Investment—capital ratio.
This does not mean that we cannot obtain comparative dynamic results for equivalent variation. To obtain them, however, we need some computational machinery beyond the cumulating and differencing procedures used for other variables. The calculation of welfare in GDyn is discussed in Chapter 6 of this book.
That is, in GDyn, the effects of changes in exogenous variables depend not only on the overall changes in exogenous variables but also on the paths followed by them. When GDyn is used in a dynamic mode by shocking the time variable, the effects of Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP 65 economic shocks depend not only on the size but also on the timing of the shocks.
Path dependence is built into the theory in three places: wealth accumulation subsection 4. The final level of regional wealth in any simulation depends on the original level and on the time paths of the exogenous variables within the simulation.
For example, technological progress in a given region normally leads to an increase in Ten Years Of Afe (File) wealth, but the increase in wealth is greater if the technological progress occurs mostly near the beginning of the period than if it occurs mostly toward the end.
Other path dependencies arise from the lagged adjustment The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 of the capital stock and from the adaptive expectations treatment of investment. Similarly, regional capital stocks cannot be inferred The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 other current variables for two reasons.
Globally, the money value of net physical investment is equal to saving, so the money value of the global capital stock is determined by wealth accumulation and capital gainnot by an equilibrium condition. In addition, the distribution of capital across regions is given not by an equilibrium condition, but by a partial adjustment process, as described in subsection 5. Investors do redistribute capital to equalize rates of return, but only gradually.
Past shocks Walk Into The World (Live Radio Hamburg) - The Name - The Lost Tapes (File, Album) affect the current international distribution of capital more if they occur Part Time Love - Ann Peebles - Part Time Love / I Still Love You the more distant past and less if they occur in the more recent past.
Finally, the level of investment depends not on the actual rate of return but on the expected rate. The expected rate of return cannot be inferred from other current variables, but adjusts toward the actual rate with a lag, as described in subsection 5.
Here then is yet The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 adjustment process whose results depend not only on the size of the changes in its inputs but also on their timing. Indeed, if we should extend GDyn to provide a better treatment of short-run dynamics, bringing in more macroeconomic content such as that found in such models as G-CUBED or FAIR, path dependencies will become more pervasive rather than less.
In short, path dependence in GDyn is here to stay. Nevertheless, and this is why one might be tempted to construe it as a bug, path dependence imposes some practical inconveniences. It places The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 the 66 Elena I. McDougall user an onus to represent accurately the time paths of exogenous variables, in circumstances where doing so would otherwise be unnecessary.
Users need to take it into account in several places in their computational strategy. First, you need The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 set periods, within the overall projection time interval, to capture sufficient detail about the time profile of the shocks.
With the continuous-time approach used in GDyn, you can run, say, a tariffreduction scenario over a single year interval and get sensible and meaningful results. If, however, you want the tariff cuts to be back-loaded and not implemented at an even pace, then you need to use several shorter intervals, so that you may specify lower rates of tariff reduction in the earlier intervals and higher rates in the later intervals. Second, even if you wish to apply shocks evenly through time, you may wish to avoid long time intervals, if you do not like the rule TABLO uses to distribute shocks between steps.
For most percentage change variables, in most applications, a more appealing default assumption is that the percentage change in the variable is constant across steps. No such way, however, is apparent from the published documentation. The shock-splitting rule does not much matter when the shocks are small, but it does matter when they are large.
More specifically, it matters when the total shock in a simulation is large, even if the shock is broken up into small pieces in individual steps.
One way to work around the problem is to avoid long intervals always, even if all shocks are evenly distributed through time. Finally, path dependence rules out some common closure-swapping strategies. In GEMPACK, a common expedient is to let the model determine Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP 67 the change in some instrument variable required to achieve a given change in a target variable, by making the naturally exogenous instrument variable endogenous, and the naturally endogenous target variable exogenous.
For example, we may determine the rate of technological progress required to achieve a given improvement in welfare by endogenizing the technological change variable and exogenizing the welfare variable. If we then run a Third Man Theme = Tema De El Tercer Hombre - Ray Conniff - Lo Mejor De Ray Conniff simulation, using the natural closure and shocking the technological change variable according to the results from the first simulation, we get — with a path-independent model — the same results as in the Spanish Rose - Van Morrison - Blowin Your Mind simulation.
We can then investigate the effects of changes in other elements of the Ten Years Of Afe (File) on welfare as on other variables, using the natural closure and the calibrated technological change shock. With a path-dependent variable this approach does not work.
The trouble is that the path of the technological change variable is different in the two simulations. In the second simulation, technology changes evenly throughout the simulation interval; in the first, it changes so as to keep GDP moving evenly through the interval. This difference is liable to affect the simulation results. In GDyn, for example, a front-loaded improvement in technology has more effect on end-of-interval wealth than the same total improvement distributed evenly through the interval.
What we need but, at the time of writing, The Come On - Janis Ian - Between The Lines not have for this problem is an automated algorithm for finding the constant rate of growth in an instrument variable or the constant rates of growth in a set of instrument variables that achieves given total growth in a target variable or a set of target variables.
Such a tool would be useful not only for single-simulation but also for multi-simulation projections. For example, in a projection made up of five 2-year simulations, each involving different tariff shocks, we would like to be able to find the constant rate of technological progress, through the complete year projection interval, required to achieve a given welfare improvement over the interval. Such a multi-simulation facility would be useful even with path-independent models.
Of course, this may not work if X is not monotonic in A, but it works most of the time, and of course, it always works for sufficiently small 68 Elena I. McDougall changes in X if X is locally nonstationary in A. In GDyn, however, it may easily fail. That is, there are relations between variables A and X such that the solution program can determine the change in X arising from a given change in A, but not the change in A required to bring about a given change in X — no matter how well behaved mathematically the relation is between A and X.
These Ten Years Of Afe (File) relations appear when one variable affects another not through the equation system but through data updates. For example, investment, of course, affects the capital stock, yet the investment variable qcgds does not appear in the relevant equation 2. In a single-step simulation, qcgds has no effect on qk. Now consider the effect of a shock Ten Years Of Afe (File) a normally exogenous, investmentrelated variable, for example, the target rate shift variable SDRORT.
In each period, this leads through the investment module to some change in the investment variable qcgds, but that change in qcgds has no effect in the current period on qk. If we try to change the closure to find the SDRORT value consistent with a given change in qk, we find it impossible to do so. If we exogenize qk r for some region r, and endogenize SDRORT rwe make the model singular, because we thereby make exogenous all variables in equation 2.
The only natural way to exogenize qk r is to swap it with sqk rand that does not achieve the larger purpose, because it does not allow qk r to determine qcgds r or SDRORT r. In a Ten Years Of Afe (File) simulation, indeed, rorga has no effect on rorge. To do so would create a singular system: The twoequation subsystem comprising the capital accumulation equation 2. The only natural way to exogenize Theoretical Structure of Dynamic Ten Years Of Afe (File) 69 rorge r is to endogenize srorge rand The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 does not achieve the purpose The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 determining labor supply endogenously.
Given that closure swaps do not work at all across these one-way relations, we evidently need some new computational machinery to let us target the naturally endogenous variables in them. As in standard GTAP, there is a fixed average propensity to save. In other words, saving is a fixed proportion of income in each region.
One unwelcome implication is that the capital account and net foreign liabilities are highly volatile and can grow without bound in GDyn simulations. In Trying To Catch The Wind - Spaghetti Jensen - Trying To Catch The Wind real world, for reasons that are poorly understood, saving and investment are highly correlated across countries, and international capital flows are much smaller and more stable than simple theory would suggest Feldstein and Horioka The second problem is that as economies with high savings rates, like China, grow, there is a glut of global savings and, as a result, of investment and capital in the world.
Because of excessive investment, rates of return to capital fall without bound. This Gabrielle - Martin Luther Lennon - Redux prevents us from running simulations with GDyn over the very long-run.
Chapter 14 evaluates the behavior of foreign assets and liabilities in GDyn, comparing it to historical data on these indicators, and proposes a technique to address this shortcoming of the model. The new theory offers a disequilibrium approach to modeling endogenously international capital mobility in a The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 applied general equilibrium setting, and it takes into account stock-flow dynamics and foreign asset income flows. It can also be shown that it ensures the convergence of the model toward a stable equilibrium and offers the flexibility of tailoring the model to observed data.
Despite some limitations of GDyn, such as the lack of equity-for-debt substitution, the absence of bilateral detail, and the lack of forward-looking behavior, the model offers a unique and simple treatment of international capital mobility in a dynamic AGE context. It captures Ten Years Of Afe (File) the economy-wide effects of capital and wealth accumulation and the income effects of foreign property ownership.
References Feldstein, M. Harrison, W. Hertel ed. Huff, K. Technical Paper No. Ianchovichina, E. Kapur, J. Entropy Optimization Principles with Applications. New York: Academic Press. McDougall, R. Center for Global Trade Ten Years Of Afe (File). Elbehri, and T. Truong eds. Tsigas, and R. Introduction The dynamic theory in Chapter 2 describes various new parameters governing international capital mobility. This chapter examines what we can learn from country-panel data about the magnitude of these additional parameters, corresponding calibration procedures, and the manipulation of the parameters with an aggregation program.
The first new parameter listed in Table 3. This parameter is the initial income level across simulations and is used to calculate welfare measures in multiperiod simulations. The rest of the parameters in Table 3. Ten Years Of Afe (File) three parameter types are discussed in turn in this chapter. Parameters Determining Lagged Adjustments The investment theory presented in Chapter 2 is expressed in terms of The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 rather than net rates of return, and it allows only zero or positive gross rates of return.
However, net of depreciation, rates of return may be negative, and they may decline to the negative of the depreciation rate.
The long-run equilibrium in the GDyn model is defined as the convergence of the net rates of return to capital stock across regions. McDougall Table 3. In the absence of risk premia, and if the depreciation rates are the same across regions, the convergence of net rates of return guarantees the convergence of gross rates of return. In this section, we construct cross-country time-series data on net rates of return to capital to test the convergence The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 and determine the speed of convergence in rates of return across countries.
We then use the results to set the lagged adjustment Out Of Nowhere - Django Reinhardt - Django Anthologie - Vol. 3 in the model in accordance with the observed behavior. The gross rate of return to capital Ten Years Of Afe (File) each country is defined as the ratio of gross operating surplus to the capital stock, and the net rate of return to capital is the ratio of net of Jellyfish - Vashti Bunyan - Heartleap operating surplus to capital stock.
Walton a, b uses the net rate of return to capital to compare profitability of the corporate nonfinancial sector in the United Kingdom with profitability of the corporate nonfinancial sector in other countries.
In these studies the rates of return were constructed using 1 In both definitions, the capital stock in the model is net capital stock. These rates of return are rather sparse for our purposes the time period covered is too short for econometric investigation and the panel is unbalanced and represent returns for nonfinancial corporations only, whereas rates of return to Ten Years Of Afe (File) in The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 GDyn model represent the overall profitability of the economy.
Therefore these studies are considered here for illustrative purposes only. There are two important features of the data highlighted in Walton a, b that we should keep in mind when choosing data for our analysis. First, annual rates of return are calculated as the ratio of the operating surplus to capital employed.
Profits, the main source of the operating surplus, are defined fairly precisely and measured reasonably consistently. However, capital employed is not defined as precisely; the definitions and methods used to estimate capital stock vary from country to country. Most of the national statistics data on capital are compiled using the perpetual inventory method PIMwhich is discussed in detail later.
This method involves adding gross fixed capital formation to, and deducting consumption of fixed capital from, an initial estimate of capital stock. The variations come from the estimates of useful service lives by capital type and country and are influenced by the business cycle and technological change. Because countries have estimated profitability consistently over time, relative changes in net rates of return should reflect real changes in their economies and hence could be used in the cross-country profitability comparisons undertaken in Walton a, b.
However, to test for convergence of rates of return to capital, we need a capital stock series that is constructed using uniform across countries assumptions. Our first step in constructing rates of return is to define profits associated with the use of capital stock.
Using the income approach to gross domestic product, GDP can be represented as a sum The Face - Various - Breaking Down The Barriers 1995-2005 value added at factor costs plus indirect taxes.
The value added at factor costs consists of labor earnings, capital earnings, and land earnings. Although time-series data on value added at factor costs with good country coverage are available from many sources for example, the World Development Indicators WDI database supported by the World Bankthe labor earnings data are problematic.
For this reason, the analysis begins with a set of countries for which these data are most readily available — the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD countries. This database covers detailed national account data for most OECD countries, including components of value added, from to the present. It lists four components of GDP: 1 compensation of employees; 2 taxes less subsidies on production and imports; 3 gross operating surplus and gross mixed income; and 4 a statistical discrepancy, which is small or zero for most of the countries considered.
The sum of the gross operating surplus and gross mixed income is used as a proxy for capital earnings. Note that this measure overestimates capital earnings because it includes land earnings, returns to natural resources, and that portion of self-employed labor earnings that is not accounted for by imputed wages.
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